PRESS RELEASE
26 June 2026
The ‘Macroeconomic Forecast’*, June 2026, published in section ‘BNB Periodical Publications’ on the BNB website, presents the forecast of key macroeconomic indicators for Bulgaria, prepared as of 27 May 2026.
According to the baseline scenario of the forecast, Bulgaria's real GDP growth will slow down to 2.8% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, before accelerating to 2.9% in 2028. The growth rate of private consumption is expected to decelerate in the second half of 2026 and in 2027 due to the adverse impact of higher inflation on households’ real disposable income. However, private consumption will continue to have the major contribution to the growth of economic activity throughout the entire forecast horizon.
Annual average inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is projected to accelerate to 5.0% in 2026 and to reach 5.9% at the end of the year, mainly reflecting higher energy prices. In 2027 and 2028, average annual inflation is expected to moderate to 3.5% and 2.9%, respectively, and inflation at the end of the respective years to be 2.7% and 2.6%.
Risks to the GDP growth and inflation forecasts are associated with possibly higher growth in economic activity and lower inflation in 2026 and 2027. This is primarily due to the cease-fire agreement between the United States and Iran reached on 17 June 2026, which led to a significant fall in international oil prices compared to the time the forecast was finalised.
Compared to the March 2026 macroeconomic forecast, current expectations are for GDP growth to remain sustainable, though lower in 2026 and 2027, and higher in 2028. The forecast for annual average inflation in 2026 and 2027 has been revised upward compared to the March forecast, while for 2028 it has been revised downward.
A highlight of the publication outlines three alternative scenarios for the development of the Bulgarian economy, based on different assumptions regarding the duration and intensity of the energy shock arising from the conflict in the Middle East.
The publication also includes a research topic ‘Analysis of labour market conditions and their impact on inflation in Bulgaria’.
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* The Macroeconomic forecast is prepared by the BNB ‘Economic Research, Forecasting and Monetary Policy’ Directorate and does not necessarily reflect the views of the BNB Governing Council members regarding the prospects for the development of the Bulgarian economy. The Bulgarian National Bank, the members of the BNB Governing Council and the BNB staff involved in the preparation of this publication shall not be held liable whatsoever for any use of the projections, estimates and all other information in this publication by any other person. The current macroeconomic forecast is based on assumptions about global economic developments and price dynamics of main commodity groups in international markets as of 21 May 2026.
